Wholesale Used Truck Values Fall 4.3% as Used EVs Hold 6.6% Above Last Year

• Cox Automotive’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index finished October at 206.8, up 2% from a year earlier and up 0.5% from September.
• Wholesale used electric vehicle values are 6.6% above a year ago, while light-duty truck values are down 4.3% from a year ago on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.
• Dealers and market watchers use wholesale prices to anticipate retail trends, and October’s numbers show trucks losing ground against EVs and compact cars.

Why a Truck Seller and an EV Seller Heard Opposite News in October

Cox Automotive released the October reading of its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) on November 6, 2026. The index tracks what used cars fetch in the wholesale market, adjusted for mix, mileage and seasonality, and it is the gauge the trade watches for a read on retail prices to come. It landed at 206.8: 2% above October 2025 and 0.5% above September. The long-term average October move is a rise of 0.3%, so the month finished slightly ahead of the normal seasonal pattern.

Under the headline, the vehicle types moved in different directions. The EV Index stood 6.6% above a year earlier. Light-duty trucks sat 4.3% lower on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The whole market, on that same unadjusted basis, was up only 0.3% year over year. A light-duty truck seller and an electric car seller looking at the same October index were looking at two different markets.

The index tracks wholesale prices, a different number from the sticker on a lot or the check written for a trade-in, and Cox published no retail price change in this report. Treat it as a direction of travel.

Gas at $4.07 Splits the Used Market in Two

Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive, pointed to fuel as the reason the two groups drifted apart: “Gas prices remain elevated and that has helped EV values stay much higher year over year versus non-EVs, even with the increase in off-lease supply. That same trend has also caused light-duty trucks to decline by 4.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis year over year, much more than marketwide wholesale prices, which are higher by 0.3%.”

AAA put the national average for regular at $4.0688 a gallon on November 6, 2026, against $3.0844 a year earlier. That is a gap of 98 cents, or nearly 32%. Our illustration: a 15-gallon fill costs $14.77 more than it did a year ago. Diesel runs higher still, at $6.2305 a gallon against $3.7093 a year ago. Regular has eased about 30 cents from the $4.3685 AAA recorded a month earlier.

Fuel costs showed up in the Manheim data a month earlier. In the September report Robb said: “The high cost of fuel is beginning to show up in the Manheim data. Diesel represents a small share of all units on the ground — just over 3% — but we’re seeing a clear downward effect on valuations as diesel prices hit all-time highs, and days’ supply for those vehicles is rapidly rising. Meanwhile, EV days’ supply has fallen, as sustained high gas prices push more consumers toward fuel-efficient used vehicles.”

Non-EVs lost 1.6% against the prior year in September, then moved to a 1.1% gain in October and a 0.4% rise on the month. EVs eased 0.9% from September and still sit 6.6% above last year. In Cox’s October segment summary, EVs and compact cars gain on last year while luxury, pickups and SUVs keep trending down. Midway through the month, Jonathan Gregory, senior director at Cox Automotive, described the shift: “The mix of what’s holding values up is shifting. EVs have outperformed all year on sustained demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, but so far this month, Non-EV values rose 0.7% while EVs slipped 0.7%. EVs remain up 6.8% year over year, though momentum is fading as more off-lease EVs come to market. Fuel efficiency and affordability continue to drive segment performance. Compact cars are up 5.6%, and midsize cars have turned positive. Luxury is now slightly below last year after being a first-half leader, and pickups remain soft.”

Earlier coverage tracked how used EV prices climb while the rest of the market softens.

Why the 2% Gain Looks Bigger Than It Is

A 2% annual rise sounds like a market recovering. Robb’s October statement explains why it deserves a closer look: “Depreciation trends at Manheim were generally in line with long-term averages, with the index holding 2% higher against depressed values last October. This year, we saw less-than-normal depreciation trends in the first half of the year, and then declines accelerated over the summer and early fall. As we got towards the end of October, depreciation slowed a little and was fairly normal from a seasonal point of view.”

Last year’s base is the key. Robb added: “October is generally the weakest month of the year, and the comparison against last year’s level is noteworthy. In 2025, the EV tax credit ended in September, which made demand stronger for both new and used EVs. When that was over, used EV values fell by 3% in October, and non-EV values fell by over 2%, causing both the index and non-seasonally adjusted values to drop sharply month over month. This year, both categories of vehicles fell on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, but they declined much less than last year.”

Gregory made the same point on October 19, when the index stood at 207.4: “After a September that depreciated faster than normal, wholesale values firmed in early October. The Manheim Index rose 0.7% to 207.4 through mid-month, but prices didn’t climb. Non-adjusted values still fell 2%, a pace October generally brings. Much of the 2.2% year-over-year gain reflects an easy comparison. Last October was unusually weak, and that low base boosts the annual figure now, much as last summer’s strong base held it down.”

The adjusted and raw numbers differ. The adjusted index rose 0.5% from September, while the non-adjusted wholesale price fell 2.3%, a bigger drop than the long-term average October decrease of 1.5%. A seller watching raw prices saw cars lose more than usual month to month, and the raw figure is up just 0.3% on last year. The Three-Year-Old Index fell 2.8% in October against the typical 3.1% depreciation for the period.

Leaner Inventory, Not Stronger Buying, Slowed the Slide

In its mid-month read, Cox pointed to stock levels as the steadier force. At the end of October, wholesale stock equaled 28.1 days of sales: a tenth of a day more than a year ago and 0.7 days less than in September. Gregory’s mid-month read put it this way: “Supply, not demand, appears to be what slowed depreciation. Wholesale days’ supply fell from 28.7 to 28.2 days, and the gap compared to last year narrowed from 2.5 days to about one day. Dealer demand, meanwhile, is roughly flat: Sales conversion is only slightly above last year, and retention eased. The firmer values reflect leaner inventory rather than stronger buying, a more stable footing, but not a buyer-driven recovery.”

On the retail side, Robb sees stock close to normal: “As October progressed, we observed used retail inventory holding tighter against last year, with used retail days’ supply currently just under 50 days, almost exactly at the long-term average for the same week of the year. As the days get colder and the nights longer, vehicle sales tend to slow down, but we need to pay close attention to the consumer as we move into the holidays. With the election over, some budding optimism may be brewing, and when you combine that with the oldest car parc in history, solid and steady demand is typically on the horizon.”

Gregory had flagged the limits of the early October rebound: “This strong start to October cannot undo a soft third quarter. The trends we flagged in September haven’t gone away: higher rates and weaker sentiment. If anything, we might have seen some of the weakness we expect to see in October pulled ahead into September after a stronger-than-expected first half. October has started on steadier ground, but we will need the full month to know whether it will hold.”

The full month answered part of that question. The index closed at 206.8, above the 205.9 recorded for September, which had fallen 1.1% from August and sat 0.6% below September 2025. Robb described that September: “We are in the weakest season for wholesale valuations, and as September closed, depreciation was steeper than we typically see this time of year. The first half of the year actually showed more appreciation than usual, even in the face of higher fuel prices. But with the conflict in the Middle East ongoing, diesel prices at record highs, and interest rates climbing rapidly — increasingly worrying both businesses and consumers — wholesale prices have felt the sting.”

What the Wholesale Move Means at the Dealer and the Driveway

New-vehicle prices give the used market its ceiling. Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive brand, reported a September average transaction price of $50,562 for a new vehicle, 0.7% above September 2025 and $52 short of the $50,614 record set in December 2025. The average incentive was $3,359. A full-size pickup averaged $67,573, up 1.5% year over year, and a compact car averaged $27,977, up 3.2%.

Those new-car numbers and the wholesale numbers measure different things. Still, new full-size pickups are getting dearer while used truck values at wholesale slide. Erin Keating of Cox Automotive explained why the industry average hides the detail: “Consumers don’t buy the industry average. They buy a vehicle, and prices for many of the vehicles they’re shopping are continuing to move higher. What’s keeping the overall average transaction price increase relatively modest is mix. Affordability pressures are pushing more buyers toward lower-priced vehicles and segments, which tempers the industrywide number even as prices for individual vehicles rise.”

A light-duty truck owner faces a 4.3% year-over-year drop at wholesale. A compact car owner sees the 5.6% year-over-year gain Gregory reported at mid-month. A used EV owner holds a vehicle worth 6.6% more at wholesale than a year ago, with Gregory warning that more off-lease EVs are coming.

What to Do Before You Trade In or Buy

Start with your own number before the dealer gives you theirs. Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive brand, publishes Trade-In Values and a Price Advisor tool that gives buyers a price range for their area, and its Instant Cash Offer connects sellers with participating local dealers. Run your car through each and write the figures down before you walk into a showroom.

Get at least two or three competing offers, and ask each dealer for the figure in writing, with the trade-in value stated separately from the price of the car you are buying.

Match your expectations to your vehicle. The October data shows light-duty trucks 4.3% below last year at wholesale while EVs and compact cars sit above it. A truck owner should not assume last year’s value still applies, and an EV owner should know that the EV Index slipped 0.9% from September.

Buyers get the mirror image. Wholesale values for light-duty trucks sit 4.3% below last year, which gives used truck shoppers a data-backed reason to push on price. Compact car and EV shoppers face values that remain above last year’s and should compare listings across several dealers. Whichever segment you shop, run the used car buying checks before any money changes hands.

Earlier this year, CARFAX data covered in our report on used car prices showed prices running $1,350 to $3,600 above their January 1 levels.

Cox publishes the next full set of Manheim data on December 7, 2026. That release covers November. Until then, recheck your own car’s value every couple of weeks: the index went from 205.9 in September to 207.4 by mid-October and 206.8 at month’s end.

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Sources

• Cox Automotive: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, October 2026 Trends
• Cox Automotive: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, Mid-October 2026 Trends
• Cox Automotive: Kelley Blue Book Report: Average New-Vehicle Transaction Prices Flirt with All-Time High, Despite Trend Toward More Affordable Product
• AAA: Fuel Prices

Reviewed by Preetam Gadekar