UK Drivers Think Tesla Will Top the Sales Charts by 2036. The Cars on the Road Say Otherwise

Asked which brand will sell the most cars in Britain ten years from now, more drivers name Tesla than any other maker. Nearly one in four picked it in a survey of 1,000 UK drivers, ahead of BMW and Mercedes-Benz, with Chinese brands a distant fourth and fifth. It is a snapshot of what people expect rather than a forecast, and set against the cars actually sitting on British driveways today, it describes a very large change.

Key takeaways:

• Tesla was picked by 23 per cent of respondents as the likely best seller in 2036, with BMW on 20 per cent and Mercedes-Benz on 19 per cent.
• Hybrids were the most popular choice of powertrain for the decade ahead, named by 41 per cent, ahead of electric and petrol.
• Not one of the ten most common cars on UK roads today is a Tesla, which is the scale of the shift drivers are predicting.

What the Survey Found

The research was commissioned by the used car marketplace CarGurus to mark ten years of operating in Britain, and polled 1,000 UK drivers aged 27 and over on how they expect the market to look by 2036.

Tesla led the brand question on 23 per cent, with BMW on 20 and Mercedes-Benz on 19. The gap between first and third is four points, which on a sample of this size says the field is close rather than that Tesla is pulling away.

Chinese brands came much lower. BYD was picked by 9 per cent and MG by 2 per cent, and another 9 per cent expect a brand that has not yet arrived here to top the charts within a decade.

Chris Knapman, CarGurus UK editorial director, said: “Tesla’s rise shows just how quickly the automotive landscape can change. Yet despite the growing presence of Chinese manufacturers, UK buyers still expect established European brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz to challenge for the top spot in 2036, suggesting Chinese brands have yet to establish themselves as the dominant force in consumers’ minds.”

On fuel, drivers hedged. Hybrids took 41 per cent as the powertrain expected to be most popular over the next ten years, with fully electric cars on 33 per cent and petrol on 32. Diesel finished last on 15 per cent, which is the clearest signal in the whole survey.

Body styles went one way only. Medium SUVs were picked by 40 per cent and small SUVs by 28, while the hatchback, the most popular body style on the used market today, was expected to fall to third on 21 per cent.

What Britain Actually Drives

Predictions are worth reading against the cars already on the road, and the gap is wide. Our analysis of Department for Transport licensing figures for the first quarter of 2026 puts the Ford Fiesta top of the national fleet with 1,275,084 cars licensed, followed by the Volkswagen Golf on 953,336, the Vauxhall Corsa on 919,683 and the Ford Focus on 877,721.

The rest of that top ten runs Nissan Qashqai, Volkswagen Polo, Toyota Yaris, Vauxhall Astra, MINI Cooper and BMW 3 Series. Nine of the ten are petrol or diesel hatchbacks and saloons of the sort the survey expects to fade, and a Tesla appears nowhere in it.

That is the measure of what drivers are predicting. Britain’s car park turns over slowly, with the average car staying on the road for well over a decade, so the fleet in 2036 will be made up largely of cars sold between now and then. A brand reaching the top of the sales charts within ten years is plausible. A brand reaching the top of the fleet in the same period is a different proposition entirely.

The hybrid answer looks more like the lived experience of the people surveyed. It is the option that asks least of a driver: no charger at home, no range planning, and a familiar filling station. Whether it survives the end of new petrol and diesel sales is a question the survey did not ask.

What Drivers Say They Want

The most interesting answers were not about badges. Asked what car makers should prioritise, 44 per cent chose longevity, reliability and ease of servicing, putting it ahead of safety technology on 42 per cent and more efficient powertrains on 31 per cent.

That ordering sits oddly beside the rest of the survey. The same drivers expect a market led by a brand known for software and over-the-air updates, while asking the industry to build cars that last and are straightforward to work on. Those two things have been pulling in opposite directions for a decade, as sealed components, condition-based servicing and intervals that are no longer published have all made cars harder for an owner to look after on their own terms.

The convenience answers went the other way. More than a third, 38 per cent, said they could not do without self-parking in future, 30 per cent pointed to autonomous driving and 27 per cent to battery swapping.

One caveat belongs with all of it. This is a survey of expectations, taken from a sample of 1,000 people, commissioned by a company marking an anniversary. It records what drivers think is coming, which is useful as a measure of mood rather than as a forecast of the market.