Diesel Costs $6.26 a Gallon as Refiners Cut Gasoline Yield Below 45 Percent

• AAA’s national average for diesel is $6.2564 a gallon, $2.16 above regular and $2.55 above a year ago, so a 25 gallon fill costs $53.90 more than the same fill of regular.
• The EIA’s refinery data shows gasoline yield averaging under 45 percent of each crude barrel from January to August, below the five-year low every month, as refiners chase higher diesel and jet fuel margins.
• Oil market experts at Dow Jones Energy and Rystad Energy see prewar pump prices three months away at best and up to a year away once a deal ends the Middle East war, so diesel buyers should budget for today’s prices and cut fuel use now.

The $54 Gap Between a Diesel Tank and a Regular Tank

AAA put the national average for diesel at $6.2564 a gallon on November 5, against $4.1003 for regular, $4.6291 for mid-grade and $5.0212 for premium. Diesel sits $2.16 above regular. Take a 25 gallon fill as the working example: diesel costs $156.41, regular costs $102.51, and the $53.90 difference lands every time the tank empties.

A year ago AAA’s diesel average stood at $3.7049, which made the same fill $92.62. The rise is $63.79 a fill, or 69 percent. Regular climbed $1.02 over the same twelve months, from $3.0790, a 33 percent increase. The EIA’s weekly survey, which includes all taxes, measured on-highway diesel at $6.292 on November 2, up $2.539 on a year earlier and $2.756 on two years earlier. Against EIA’s regular gasoline price of $4.153 that day, the diesel premium was $2.14.

The cause sits inside the refinery. The EIA reported on November 5 that US refiners have cut the share of each barrel of crude that becomes gasoline, to make more diesel and jet fuel. They did it while gasoline itself was expensive, which tells you how much more the other two fuels pay.

The pump prices show the effect. Diesel is 27 cents under AAA’s record of $6.5276, set on September 22, but it has barely moved lately: it fell 7.8 cents in a week and 6.4 cents in a month. Regular gasoline fell 26.5 cents over the same month, from $4.3653, and AAA says it dropped 12 cents in the latest week alone. Over that month gasoline fell four times as far as diesel.

Work the cost out for your own truck. A diesel pickup that covers 12,000 miles a year at 20 miles per gallon burns 600 gallons. The $2.5515 year-on-year jump adds about $1,531 to that driver’s annual fuel bill. Anyone who buys groceries, parcels or building materials pays a share too: the US depends heavily on trucking, and diesel is what trucks burn.

Refiners Are Trading Gasoline Barrels for Diesel and Jet Fuel

A refinery yield is the share of one product that comes out of each barrel of crude a plant processes. The US fleet normally turns 100 barrels of crude into 45 to 50 barrels of gasoline. Gasoline, diesel (which the EIA calls distillate fuel oil) and jet fuel together usually make up 85 to 90 percent of everything US refineries produce. Yields are shares of the same barrel, so a refinery that lifts diesel and jet fuel has fewer barrels left for gasoline.

The EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly, with data through August 2026, shows exactly that shift. Gasoline yield averaged less than 45 percent from January through August, and it ran well below the 2021 to 2025 low in every one of those months. Distillate yield stayed above its five-year average every month. In March 2026 the jet fuel yield topped an average of 12 percent for the first time, and it has held at 12 percent or higher through August.

Refiners follow the margin, and the margin sits with diesel and jet fuel. The EIA tracks it with crack spreads, which measure what a refined fuel sells for after subtracting the cost of the crude. In the third quarter of 2026 the average gasoline crack spread ran at more than twice its year-ago level, while the distillate and jet fuel spreads climbed to almost three times last year’s.

Supply explains the premium. Refineries in Russia, China and the Middle East normally supply a large share of the world’s diesel and jet fuel, and disruptions at those plants left buyers abroad short. High US exports to those buyers followed. US distillate stocks stood 13 percent under the five-year average in the week ending September 25, the EIA reports. Gasoline stocks stood 7 percent under and jet fuel stocks 3 percent over.

Refiners are running hard to chase it. US refinery utilization averaged 95 percent in the third quarter, and the last third quarter to process more crude was 2019, when refining capacity stood 4 percent higher. Crude itself has eased from September, when Brent futures peaked at $109 a barrel; AAA now puts crude in the high $80s to low $90s. A barrel of Brent sold for about $70 in late February, just before the Middle East war began.

Where Diesel Costs the Most

The EIA’s regional table for November 2 shows a $2.26 spread between its cheapest and dearest diesel areas. California, which the table lists as a state inside the West Coast region, is the dearest at $8.076 a gallon, up $3.143 on a year ago. The Lower Atlantic states are the cheapest at $5.814. A 25 gallon fill costs $201.90 in California and $145.35 in the Lower Atlantic, a $56.55 gap for the same tank.

The West Coast as a whole averaged $7.272, and the rest of the region without California averaged $6.575. The Central Atlantic states led the East at $6.486, with New England at $6.416 and the full East Coast at $6.025. The Rocky Mountain region stood at $6.445, the Midwest at $6.402 and the Gulf Coast at $5.912. Every region sat above $5.80.

California drivers pay $2.33 more for a gallon of diesel than for regular, which averaged $5.748 in the state. The cost of moving food on those prices is covered in the report on California diesel and grocery prices.

How Long Relief Takes

Neither Dow Jones Energy’s Brito nor Rystad Energy’s León expects a quick return to prewar pump prices. A deal that ends the war would pull crude down first. Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets at Dow Jones Energy, says traders would watch for public statements from both Iran and the US that the Strait of Hormuz is reopening and that each side is withdrawing forces from the area. About a fifth of the world’s oil moved through that strait before the war. If traders believe the peace will hold, crude falls fast: “If that scenario happens, then I personally see crude prices dropping, you know, $15, $20 [a barrel] immediately, in the next two, three days from the announcement,” Brito said.

Pump prices follow far more slowly. Ships now sailing long detours around the strait must go back to their starting ports before they can resume the old routes, and Jorge León, who leads the geopolitics team at Rystad Energy, says that return could jam traffic. The crude then has to be refined and delivered. Brito’s best case has gasoline and diesel back at prewar prices within three months of an announced ceasefire or deal. León expects crude to need about six months to get back to its prewar price, with gasoline and diesel following one to two months later. Both said setbacks could stretch the recovery to as long as a year after a deal is announced.

Diesel faces its own drag. Russian refineries normally supply a large share of the world’s diesel, so continued Ukrainian attacks on them could stop diesel from falling as fast as gasoline. León said reopened traffic through Hormuz will help lower diesel, but the return to prewar levels could take longer. US refineries running above 90 percent of capacity add a risk: an emergency shutdown, just as more oil reaches the market, would slow the fall. Shipping adds a cost of its own: tankers burn more fuel on longer routes, and the insurance on them costs more.

Brito offers no promise of a return to old prices. “I don’t want to say this, but, you know, expensive gasoline prices could be a new normal,” he said. He added a condition in writing. “Bottom line,” Brito wrote, for any hope of a return to normal prices, “you need to see a definitive end of the conflict.”

Ways to Cut the Diesel Bill

Plan for diesel near $6 for months. Even Brito’s best case runs to three months after a deal. A budget built on the $6.2564 average gives diesel truck owners a number to hold against the $1,531 yearly rise in the example above.

Start with the pump. Prices in the EIA’s table differ by $1.36 between the West Coast and the Gulf Coast, and prices differ from station to station within a region as well. Check AAA’s Fuel Prices site or your fuel app before every fill and skip the dearest station on your route. On a 25 gallon tank, 20 cents a gallon is $5.

Keep the tires at the pressure printed on the placard in the driver’s door jamb. Soft tires waste fuel; see how tire pressure affects fuel economy.

Slower highway speeds cut consumption too, and the best speed for fuel economy sets out the target. Unload heavy gear you do not need from the bed, and combine errands into one trip so the engine runs warm.

Businesses that pay freight should ask carriers how their fuel surcharge is calculated and plan for quotes that track diesel. The EIA publishes the next weekly diesel survey on November 10. Compare it with the $6.292 reading of November 2 to see which way diesel is heading.

Reviewed by Preetam Gadekar

Sources

• EIA: Refineries have shifted production away from gasoline to middle distillates
• EIA: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
• AAA: AAA Fuel Prices
• NPR: Does the blue wave mean lower gasoline and diesel prices soon? Don’t hold your breath

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