Used Diesel Values Fell 2.6 Percent in October as Electric Cars Gained 0.6 Percent

• Cap HPI valuation figures for October 2026 show a car aged three years with 60,000 miles lost 1.7 percent of its used value, about 350 pounds.
• Diesel lost 2.6 percent and petrol 2.2 percent, while battery electric cars alone gained value, up 0.6 percent or 70 pounds.
• Cap HPI expects a further fall of around 2.1 percent in November, a bigger drop than the 1.9 percent recorded in November 2025.

A Three-Year-Old Car Lost About 350 Pounds in October, and Diesel Took the Biggest Hit

A car aged three years with 60,000 miles on the clock lost 1.7 percent of its used value in October 2026. That is about 350 pounds, and the fuel type decided how hard a car was hit. Diesel fell 2.6 percent, petrol 2.2 percent, plug-in hybrids 1.9 percent and conventional hybrids 1.8 percent. Battery electric cars rose 0.6 percent, a gain of 70 pounds, and no other fuel type moved upward.

October is a month when values fall anyway, but this one fell faster than usual. Cap HPI puts the seasonal average October fall at 1.4 percent, so the 1.7 percent figure is 0.3 points worse than normal. Last October the market lost 1.1 percent, which makes this year 0.6 points worse. Cap HPI’s own initial estimate was a 1.6 percent fall, so the final figure came in 0.1 points worse.

Percentages are easier to feel in pounds. On a car worth 15,000 pounds, a figure chosen here as an illustration and not one Cap HPI uses, the October moves work out like this: 390 pounds lost on a diesel, 330 pounds on a petrol, 285 pounds on a plug-in hybrid, 270 pounds on a hybrid and 90 pounds gained on an electric car. The overall 1.7 percent is worth 255 pounds on the same car. Cap HPI’s own pound figures, 350 for the overall fall and 70 for the electric gain, apply to its benchmark car.

The Year So Far Is Far Worse for Diesel

October is one month in a weak year. Across 2026 to date, diesel values are down 11.7 percent, plug-in hybrids 9.9 percent and petrol 8 percent. Battery electric cars have lost 4.7 percent, less than half the diesel figure. On the same illustrative 15,000 pound car at the start of January, that is 1,755 pounds gone from a diesel, 1,485 pounds from a plug-in hybrid, 1,200 pounds from a petrol and 705 pounds from an electric car.

The electric gain is not a market-wide rise. Cap HPI counted almost half of electric models up in value in October, around a quarter unchanged and around a quarter down. The Vauxhall Mokka Electric rose 4 percent, or 370 pounds. The Kia Niro EV gained 3 percent, 385 pounds, the Kia EV6 2 percent, 380 pounds, and the Peugeot E-2008 2.4 percent, 250 pounds. A buyer or seller of an electric car is dealing with a spread of outcomes by model, and the fuel average hides it.

Selling speed follows the same order. Electric cars needed 32 days on average to find a retail buyer in October, petrol cars 35 days and diesels 38 days. A diesel waited six days longer than an electric car on the forecourt, a petrol three days longer.

Why Diesel Is Struggling While Electric Cars Hold Up

Cap HPI blames high fuel prices for the pressure on diesel in most sectors of the market. The same prices work in favour of electric cars. Independent dealers who stayed away from electric cars after the steep falls of earlier years are returning to them, and Cap HPI judges it likely that events in the Middle East and rising fuel costs sped that trend up. Chris Plumb, head of current car valuation at Solera Cap HPI, describes what dealers are finding.

Plumb said: “Used electric cars are performing well, particularly at the more affordable end of the market. Buyers are becoming more comfortable with the technology, and high fuel prices are encouraging more people to consider switching.” “What’s encouraging is that values are improving even as more electric cars enter the used market. Dealers are finding buyers for them, and they’re generally selling quickly.”

Used electric cars cost less than their petrol and diesel twins. Cap HPI’s data shows trade prices of most battery electric models sitting an average of 3,517 pounds below the same model with a conventional engine, at three years and 30,000 miles. That is 13.7 percent, a 5 percent improvement over three months, and the gap widens to more than 15 percent at five years and 50,000 miles.

Cap HPI warns that the run has limits. It describes the recent strength in electric values as likely to be temporary for many models, though it expects electric cars to beat the wider market for at least two more months. Its view is that the favourable position continues while fuel prices stay high and softens a little once oil prices ease back. Younger electric cars face another drag: new car discounts, including the Electric Car Grant. When Cap HPI wrote its overview, 60 models were eligible, most at 1,500 pounds and 16 at the top rate of 3,750 pounds, with 6 of those depending on battery choice. Cap HPI expects the latest new car offers to drag down the value of nearly new used cars.

Diesel owners of larger cars have a further forecast to absorb. Cap HPI cut its forward value forecasts for upper medium diesels, with a forecast impact of 2.5 percent at 12 and 24 months and about 2.75 percent from 36 months. Across all fuels it lowered its three-year, 60,000-mile value forecasts by about 1.6 percent from October to November, against a normal seasonal change of 1.1 percent. By fuel, the cut is 1.4 percent for diesel, 1.1 percent for electric, 1.2 percent for hybrid, 1.9 percent for petrol and 2.1 percent for plug-in hybrid.

What Cap HPI Expects in November

The next month looks harder than October. Cap HPI forecasts an overall fall of around 2.1 percent in November. That is worse than the 2.0 percent seasonal average for November across the years from the launch of cap Live in 2012, and worse than the 1.9 percent of November 2025. On the 15,000 pound illustration, 2.1 percent of the 14,745 pounds left after October is about 310 pounds. Two months of the forecast fall together would take about 565 pounds, or 3.8 percent, off a car that started October at 15,000 pounds.

The cause is supply. Trade sales of cars between three and five years old ran almost 20 percent above last year’s level in the same period, and Cap HPI expects used volume to keep rising in November, driven by September part-exchange cars and larger volumes of fleet returns. Demand should hold up well for the season, though the higher volumes could hurt it as the month goes on. Electric cars keep their edge, but Cap HPI expects it to be slightly smaller in November than in October and to shrink further over the months after.

Plumb said: “We’ve seen more stock coming into the wholesale market during October, while attractive new car offers are making life harder for used car retailers.” “Buyers are still active at auction, but they’re being more selective about what they purchase and how much they’re prepared to pay. Cars are selling, although vendors are having to be more realistic about prices.”

Condition counts for more as stock grows. Cap HPI says parts availability and refurbishment capacity continue to limit what dealers buy, and the cleanest cars are expected to keep selling well.

What to Do If You Are Selling, Part-Exchanging or Ending a Finance Deal

Start with a number for your own car. The percentages here describe a benchmark car at three years and 60,000 miles, so they show the direction of the market, not a quote for yours. Run a valuation today with the exact mileage and condition, write down the date, and run it again in a month. If Cap HPI’s forecast holds, the second figure will sit lower, and the gap tells you what waiting costs.

Timing favours the seller who is ready. A sale agreed in early November avoids part of the 2.1 percent fall that the forecast puts on the month. Diesel carries the steepest fall of any fuel type and the longest wait to retail sale, so a diesel owner who plans to sell has the most to lose from delay. Nobody can promise the forecast comes true, which is why a dated valuation is worth more than a hunch.

Expect dealers to bid with care. They face more stock and strong new car deals, and Plumb says sellers must price closer to what buyers will pay. Take offers from more than one dealer, and clean the car and gather the service history first, as Cap HPI expects the cleanest cars to keep selling well. Cheaper used cars have been moving in the same direction, as shown in the Cap HPI data on cheaper used cars.

If you have a finance deal, ask the lender for a settlement figure and put it beside your valuation, so you know whether the car is worth more or less than you still owe. A car handed back at the end of a deal is judged on its condition, and the fair wear and tear rules set what you can be charged for.

Electric car owners have the best of the numbers but the least certainty. October’s 0.6 percent gain is small against a 4.7 percent fall this year, and Cap HPI itself expects the strength to fade for many models. Earlier Cap HPI figures on used electric cars losing value show how steep the earlier falls were, which is why the recent gains are small beside them.

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Sources

• Cap HPI: Future Used Car Market Overview, November 2026
• EV Fleet World: Used car values drop 1.7% in October but EVs buck trend

Reviewed by Preetam Gadekar