Why Catalytic Converter Theft Is Surging Again [and How to Protect Your Car]

• Catalytic converter theft is rising sharply again in 2026 after rhodium prices more than doubled, and St. Paul, Minnesota saw reported thefts jump 193 percent in a single year even with one of the nation’s strictest anti-theft laws still in force.
• Toyota Prius owners, Honda Accord owners, and Ford F-150 or F-250 owners face the highest risk, as those vehicles combine high ground clearance or precious-metal-rich converters with easy access for thieves.
• A converter shield costing $200 to $600 will not stop a determined thief, but it can turn a 90-second job into a 10-minute one, long enough that most thieves move on to an easier target.

The crime wave everyone thought was over is already back

Two years ago, catalytic converter theft looked like a solved problem. State Farm’s claims data showed thefts had collapsed 81 percent in dollar terms between 2022 and 2024, new state laws had made stolen converters harder to sell, and federal prosecutors had just dismantled the largest converter theft ring in US history. Then rhodium, the rare metal packed inside every converter, climbed back above $10,000 an ounce, and the crime that insurers thought they had beaten started climbing again. In St. Paul, Minnesota, a city with one of the strictest state anti-theft laws in the country still fully in effect, reported catalytic converter thefts jumped from 172 in 2024 to 504 in 2025, a 193 percent increase in a single year. Berkeley, California recorded nine thefts in the first week of January 2026 alone, including one armed robbery in the middle of a converter theft, after seeing annual thefts fall from 847 in 2022 to roughly 250 in all of 2025.

The mechanics of the crime have not changed. A catalytic converter sits underneath a vehicle and contains small amounts of platinum, palladium, and rhodium, precious metals used to reduce harmful emissions. A thief with a battery-powered saw can cut one loose in as little as 90 seconds, then sell it to a scrap dealer or metal recycler for cash, often with no questions asked in states with weaker record-keeping laws. What has changed is the price of the metal inside. Rhodium fell from a peak of more than $20,000 an ounce in 2021 to roughly $4,600 by 2024, and theft fell right along with it. By February 2026, rhodium had climbed back to $10,400 an ounce, a 126 percent increase from its 2024 low, and theft is following the same pattern upward that it followed downward.

Why the price of a rare metal controls whether your car gets targeted

Two academic studies published in the last two years quantified exactly how sensitive converter theft is to metal prices, and both predicted the resurgence now showing up in city crime data. Researchers at the University of Wisconsin analyzed 42 months of police reports across eight California cities and calculated that a 10 percent increase in precious metal prices produces roughly a 20 percent increase in theft, a relationship economists call elasticity. Their interviews with active thieves found that criminal networks “kick into overdrive” whenever scrap values climb. A separate study from the London School of Economics and Singapore Management University, analyzing nine years of FBI crime data, calculated a somewhat lower but still substantial elasticity, and found that price increases drove rapid theft increases while price declines and new laws reversed the pattern quickly.

Applying those elasticity estimates to the 126 percent rhodium price increase from its 2024 low produces predicted theft increases ranging from roughly 57 percent to 249 percent, depending on which study’s model is used and how quickly criminal networks reorganize after a period of lower activity. St. Paul’s actual 193 percent increase falls squarely inside that predicted range, which is about as close to a controlled experiment as crime data gets. Minnesota’s 2023 law, which requires VIN marking on converters and electronic record-keeping by scrap dealers, has not changed. Scrap dealer requirements have not loosened. The only variable that moved is the price of the metal, and theft moved with it.

Why state laws slow the crime down but cannot stop it

Between 2021 and 2024, 31 states passed laws specifically targeting catalytic converter theft, mostly requiring scrap dealers to photograph sellers, record vehicle identification numbers, and verify that a seller actually owns the vehicle a converter came from. New York’s law, in effect from March 2023 onward, helped New York City cut thefts by 80 percent between 2022 and 2024. California’s 2021 law restricts who can legally sell a converter and requires documented paperwork for every transaction. These laws work, in the sense that they raise the floor. St. Paul’s 504 thefts in 2025 remain 80 percent below the city’s 2022 peak of 2,439, even with prices climbing back up, which suggests Minnesota’s law is truly suppressing some theft that would otherwise occur.

But 31 states is not all 50, and the laws that do exist vary widely in how strictly they are enforced. A thief can steal a converter in a state with strict record-keeping requirements and drive across a state line to sell it somewhere with weaker rules, an arbitrage opportunity that a patchwork of state laws cannot close. A federal bill called the Preventing Auto Recycling Theft Act, which would create national standards for converter sales and marking, has been introduced in Congress three times over the past five years and has failed each time, leaving the current mix of state-by-state protection as the only legal backstop against a crime that ignores state borders entirely.

Why your insurance premium never dropped even while theft fell

Drivers who noticed converter theft falling between 2022 and 2024 likely expected their theft-related insurance premiums, which cover converter theft after the deductible, to fall too. Most did not, and the 2025 to 2026 rebound explains why. State Farm’s average claim payment for a stolen converter rose 53 percent from $1,900 in 2019 to $2,900 in 2024, even as the number of claims collapsed, as repair labor and replacement parts kept getting more expensive. Insurers also price that coverage for expected future risk rather than last year’s claims alone, and actuaries treat a rapid decline driven by volatile commodity prices as inherently unreliable. The 2025 to 2026 resurgence is validating that caution. Insurers are unlikely to cut rates meaningfully while rhodium sits above the roughly $8,000-an-ounce threshold that historically correlates with rising theft, and current supply forecasts suggest metal prices will stay elevated through at least the end of 2026.

What to do if you own a high-risk vehicle

Hybrid vehicles, especially the Toyota Prius, are consistently the most targeted, as hybrids burn less gasoline, which means their converters degrade more slowly and retain more of their original precious metal content. A single Prius converter can contain several thousand dollars’ worth of rhodium. Pickup trucks with high ground clearance, especially the Ford F-150 and F-250, let a thief slide underneath without jacking up the vehicle, and their larger converters carry more metal. Mid-size sedans, especially the Honda Accord, round out the most-targeted list.

Owners of these vehicles should install a converter shield, a metal plate that bolts onto the underside of the vehicle and covers the converter, professionally installed for $200 to $600 depending on the model. A shield will not defeat a thief with unlimited time and a powerful saw, but it can stretch a 90-second theft into a 10-minute ordeal, and most thieves simply move to an easier target rather than risk getting caught. VIN etching, sometimes offered free by local police departments, engraves a vehicle’s identification number onto the converter casing, making it harder to sell in states with strict scrap dealer laws, though a determined thief can grind the etching off.

Parking choices matter as much as hardware. Thieves prefer dark, isolated spots where they can work unobserved, so parking in well-lit areas near building entrances or security cameras reduces risk meaningfully. Drivers who must park on the street should vary their spot when possible. Thieves often scout a neighborhood over several days before returning to a specific vehicle. Anyone whose deductible is high relative to the roughly $2,900 average replacement cost should call their insurer and ask specifically whether installing a converter shield qualifies for a theft-coverage discount, as some carriers, including State Farm, GEICO, and Progressive, offer one, though availability varies by state.

Sources:

• MoneyGeek: The Catalytic Converter Cycle: How Theft Collapsed 83%, Then Prices Doubled, and It Came Back
• Carfax: Catalytic Converter Theft: 10 Most Targeted Vehicles
• Border Report: Catalytic converter theft is back. Here’s who’s being targeted