Sydney Petrol Still 73 Cents Dearer Than 30 June, With a Fall Forecast

• The NRMA measured Sydney’s average regular unleaded price at 225.3 cents a litre on Monday 9 November, 73.1 cents above its level on 30 June.
• The NRMA forecasts a mid to high 210s average this week as wholesale prices drop, and at 215 cents a 50 litre tank costs $5.15 less than it does now.
• The ACCC says Sydney’s petrol price cycle has largely stopped from late February, when the Middle East conflict started, so comparing prices on an app beats waiting for a cheap day.

Why Waiting for a Cheap Day Has Stopped Working in Sydney

Sydney drivers filling up on Monday evening, 9 November, paid an average of 225.3 cents a litre for regular unleaded petrol. That is 73.1 cents more than the same fuel cost on 30 June, the NRMA’s weekly fuel report shows, and on a 50 litre tank the gap comes to $36.55. A fill that cost $76.10 on 30 June now costs $112.65.

Relief is forecast. Sydney wholesale prices for regular unleaded fell 21.8 cents a litre last week, and the NRMA expects the retail average to slide into the mid to high 210s over the coming week. At 215 cents, the same 50 litre tank costs $107.50, which is $5.15 below today’s price. The club labels the figure a forecast estimate only.

The bigger change is for anyone who used to time a fill. The ACCC says the regular rise and fall of petrol prices has largely stopped in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide from late February 2026, when the Middle East conflict started. In 2025, the average Sydney cycle ran about 5 weeks, with a low point at the start of each one. That rhythm has gone quiet, so a live price check is the practical guide.

What Each Fuel Costs in Sydney Now

Regular unleaded is one line on the board. The NRMA’s Monday figures for the other fuels, with the rise from 30 June, run as follows. E10 averaged 223.3 cents a litre, up 72.8 cents. Premium 95 averaged 243.1 cents, up 74.5 cents. Premium 98 averaged 250.8 cents, up 73.6 cents. Diesel averaged 273.7 cents, up 97.4 cents, and it fell 7.9 cents in the latest week. LPG averaged 115.4 cents, down 0.1 cents on the week.

Working back from those numbers gives the 30 June levels: 152.2 cents for regular unleaded, 150.5 cents for E10, 168.6 cents for Premium 95, 177.2 cents for Premium 98 and 176.3 cents for diesel. Diesel has climbed furthest, by 97.4 cents against 73.1 cents for regular unleaded.

On a 50 litre fill, E10 costs $111.65, which is $1.00 below regular unleaded. Premium 95 costs $121.55 and Premium 98 costs $125.40, which is $8.90 and $12.75 above regular. Diesel costs $136.85, and its rise from 30 June adds $48.70 to that fill, against $36.55 for a regular unleaded owner. Check which fuel grade your handbook requires before switching between them.

Why the Pump Price Is Falling, and What Is Still Pushing It Up

The fall starts upstream. The NRMA recorded a 10.5 cent a litre drop in the average crude price last week, a 21.2 cent drop in the unleaded price benchmark and a 7.5 cent drop in the diesel benchmark. In Sydney, the average wholesale price for regular unleaded fell 21.8 cents to 203.3 cents a litre, and wholesale diesel fell 9.8 cents to 255.2 cents.

At 225.3 cents, the Sydney pump average sits 22.0 cents above the wholesale average for regular unleaded. For diesel the gap is 18.5 cents, from 273.7 cents at the pump against 255.2 cents wholesale. The NRMA does not say what that difference covers, so treat it as a gap and not as a measured retailer margin. The ACCC explains that Australian retail fuel prices are largely set by international crude and refined fuel prices and the Australian to US dollar exchange rate, with local competition adding its own effect.

Regional drivers saw a smaller move. The NRMA’s regional averages fell 4.6 cents a litre for regular unleaded and 3.9 cents for diesel last week.

Tax sits inside the 73.1 cent figure. The federal government cut fuel excise by 32 cents a litre from 1 April to 30 June 2026, restored part of it from 1 July to 2 August, and brought it fully back to 53.7 cents a litre on 3 August. The NRMA measures from 30 June, the last day of the full 32 cent cut, so the return of excise sits inside the 73.1 cent rise. The ACCC’s overall assessment is that retailers passed the excise changes through to pump prices in a suitable way.

A different starting date gives a different gap. The ACCC’s comparison with February, reported on this site on 6 November, measures from before the conflict. The NRMA’s 30 June comparison starts from the final day of the excise cut. Both are valid, and neither should be mixed with the other.

What Happened to the Sydney Price Cycle

The ACCC describes a petrol price cycle as a sharp rise in prices over a short period, followed by a gradual decrease over a longer one. Retailers create the pattern through their own pricing decisions; wholesale costs do not drive it, and not every retailer takes part.

The ACCC’s table of the past five Sydney cycles shows the pattern before it stopped. The cycles began on Friday 29 August 2025, Friday 3 October, Wednesday 5 November, Wednesday 3 December and Sunday 11 January 2026. They lasted 35, 33, 28, 39 and 31 days, an average of 33.2 days. Prices climbed for 12 to 16 days to a peak, then took between 14 and 27 days to reach the next low.

Even in those cycles, no weekday owned the cheap price. The lows fell on a Friday, a Friday, a Wednesday, a Wednesday and a Sunday, and the peaks on a Friday, a Thursday, a Wednesday, a Monday and a Tuesday. A driver who always filled on a Friday would have hit the low price day in only two of the five cycles. The table ends with the cycle that began on 11 January and ran 31 days.

After late February the pattern stopped appearing in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide. Western Australia is the contrast. The ACCC’s Perth table for May and June 2026 shows a seven day cycle, with the low on a Tuesday and the high on the Wednesday, and Perth is missing from the ACCC’s list of cities where cycles have mostly stopped.

Two fuels do not follow the pattern. The ACCC says retail diesel and automotive LPG prices do not move in cycles. Canberra, Hobart and Darwin have no buying tips at all, as the smaller cities and most regional areas do not see the pattern. For the five largest cities the ACCC updates its tips at least on Monday, Wednesday and Friday around midday, and calls the history a guide only. Its Sydney tip on Wednesday 11 November said prices had decreased and that drivers can look for lower priced retailers.

What to Do Before You Fill Up

Check a live price before every fill rather than a calendar. The ACCC urges drivers to use the fuel price app or website for their state. In New South Wales that is the NSW Fuel Check website and app, and the Australian Capital Territory uses the NSW Fuel Check website. The NRMA points drivers to the fuel search in the My NRMA app. Other states have their own: MyFuel NT in the Northern Territory, FuelCheck TAS in Tasmania, RAA SA in South Australia, the Service Victoria app in Victoria and FuelWatch in Western Australia. Queensland has no single government app on the ACCC’s list; drivers there use commercial websites and apps that draw on the state’s fuel price reporting data.

If the forecast holds, waiting costs little and saves little. A 20 litre part fill at 215 cents costs $2.06 less than at 225.3 cents, and a full 50 litre tank saves $5.15. A driver close to empty should fill rather than gamble on an estimate, and a driver with half a tank can wait a few days and check the app again. Diesel owners face a larger bill and the same advice: the NRMA expects diesel to fall this week in line with wholesale, and with no cycle to time, the app is the tool.

Fuel is one running cost among several. Victorians vote on 28 November, with the Carroll government offering a $30 a week toll cap through 2027 and the Coalition a $50 a week cap for two years from 1 July 2027, and neither of the Victorian toll caps is law.

When a price on an app or website differs from the price board or the pump, tell the service station first. If that fails to settle it, contact your local consumer protection agency. Those agencies do not regulate fuel prices, but they are the right place for local consumer problems. State and territory regulators have issued infringement notices to retailers who breached mandatory price reporting rules, and the common breaches are failing to report a price change and selling at a price different from the reported one.

To pass a fuel concern to the ACCC, choose Yes on its consumer issue form when asked whether the report is about fuel. Fuel reports topped 3,700 in March 2026, 29 percent of everything the ACCC received that month, then fell to around 1,550 in April and settled near 370 a month from May to September. The ACCC is still investigating allegations of anti-competitive conduct over diesel availability in regional and rural Australia, an investigation it announced on 19 March and has not yet formed a view on.

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Reviewed by Preetam Gadekar