Why Gas Prices Are Falling From Their October Record High

• The national gas price average has eased to $4.2953 a gallon, down 6 cents from last week and 18 cents from last month, according to AAA’s daily fuel index.
• California, which set an October record above $6.34 a gallon two weeks ago, has fallen back to $6.17; Hawaii, Nevada and Washington are the only other states still above $5.
• North Carolina has the nation’s cheapest gas at $3.61 a gallon, and ten states now sit below $4, giving drivers in the South and Midwest the most relief.

The Record Is Already Two Weeks Old

Drivers who filled up near the middle of this month watched the pump climb to the highest level ever recorded for October, with California crossing $6.34 a gallon and the national average pushing past $4.40. That peak has already passed. AAA’s daily fuel index puts the national average for regular gasoline at $4.2953 a gallon today, a drop of roughly 6 cents from a week ago and about 18 cents from a month ago. The direction has flipped from rising to falling, and for most of the country the relief shows up at nearly every pump.

California tells the clearest version of that story. The state’s average sat at $6.34 a gallon two weeks ago, the most expensive gas anywhere in the country this year. It now stands at $6.1723, a drop of more than 16 cents, while staying far above every other state. Hawaii follows at $5.6251, with Nevada at $5.3883 and Washington at $5.3870 rounding out the only four states where a full tank still runs well past $70 for an average sedan.

Where Drivers Are Catching a Break

The cheapest gas in the country sits in North Carolina, at $3.6096 a gallon, the only state under $3.65. Georgia follows at $3.7313 and Texas at $3.7771, both part of a cluster of Southern and Gulf Coast states that have carried the lowest prices in the country for most of the year. South Carolina ($3.8192), Indiana ($3.8427), Alabama ($3.8988), Louisiana ($3.8629), Mississippi ($3.8874), Missouri ($3.9309), Kentucky ($3.9324), Arkansas ($3.9048) and Oklahoma ($3.9422) round out the ten states still under $4 a gallon, a list dominated by states with their own oil refining capacity and lower state gas taxes than the national norm.

Diesel tells a more expensive story everywhere. AAA’s state-by-state figures show diesel running well above $5.70 a gallon in every state in the country, and above $8 in California alone, at $8.4945. Every long-haul delivery, moving truck and freight shipment on the road pays that higher number, a cost that works its way into the price of everything those trucks carry long before it shows up on a receipt.

Why the Price Line Bent Downward

Gas prices in the US track crude oil costs closely, but they also move with the calendar. Refineries switch over the fall to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, which costs less to produce than the summer formulas required in warmer months to control smog. That seasonal switch typically pulls a few cents off the price at the pump just as October gives way to November, on top of whatever crude oil is doing on a given week. Combined with the easing of whatever regional supply pressure pushed October’s prices to a record in the first place, the result is the pullback AAA’s numbers are now showing nearly everywhere at once.

That doesn’t mean every state is moving at the same pace. A handful of states, mostly on the West Coast, remain well above where they sat a year ago, and a tank of gas in California still costs close to double what it costs in North Carolina for the identical amount of fuel. The gap between the cheapest and most expensive state gas in the country is now $2.5627 a gallon, enough to add more than $38 to the cost of filling a 15-gallon tank depending entirely on which side of the country a driver lives on.

What To Do If You’re Planning a Fill-Up

Drivers who can wait a few days to fill up are generally better off waiting right now, since the week-over-week trend is running downward in nearly every state. For anyone driving across state lines, timing a fill-up for the cheaper side of the trip can save real money. A driver crossing from Georgia into Florida, for example, would pay about 35 cents more per gallon on the Florida side under today’s averages, enough to matter on a long tank.

Apps that track station-level prices in real time, rather than statewide averages, remain the most reliable way to find the cheapest gas on a specific route, since even neighboring stations in the same city can differ by 20 cents or more. Loyalty programs tied to grocery chains and warehouse clubs also continue to offer per-gallon discounts in many states, on top of whatever the sign at the pump says, and those discounts stack with the seasonal drop AAA’s numbers are now showing.

What Comes Next

AAA updates its national and state averages daily, and the numbers above reflect prices as of today. Drivers watching for the next shift in either direction can check the current national and state-by-state averages directly at gasprices.aaa.com, which publishes the same data used here without a subscription or sign-up required. Barring a new supply shock, the seasonal pattern that has pulled prices down in past Octobers suggests the current slide has more room to run before winter weather and holiday travel demand start pushing the other way closer to December.

Sources:

• AAA Gas Prices: Today’s AAA National Average
• AAA Gas Prices: State Gas Price Averages