DfT Could Cut the 2030 Electric Car Target From 80 to 50 Percent

• The Department for Transport is consulting until 23 October 2026 on cutting the 2030 electric car sales target from 80 percent to 70, 60 or 50 percent.
• The government says it will not change its commitment to end sales of purely petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and to make all new cars and vans zero emission by 2035.
• DfT estimates manufacturers paid about £4,000 per traded allowance in 2024 and gave an average extra discount of about £2,800 per electric vehicle in 2025 to meet the targets.

The ZEV Mandate Review Asks Whether Britain’s Electric Car Sales Rules Are Too Steep

The Department for Transport (DfT) has opened a 10 week consultation on whether the electric car sales rules that every manufacturer must meet are too steep. It began on 14 August 2026 and closes at 11:59pm on 23 October 2026. DfT is running it on behalf of the UK government and the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Ireland administrations, and nothing has changed in law yet.

The document, the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate Review, puts three lower 2030 targets on the table alongside the current one. Anyone who buys, leases or runs a car in Britain can respond, and the answers will shape what the next generation of showroom stock looks like.

What DfT Is Proposing

Under the current Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate, a rising share of each manufacturer’s new car sales must be zero emission. The legislated targets are 33 percent in 2026, 38 percent in 2027, 52 percent in 2028, 66 percent in 2029 and 80 percent in 2030, with an indicative path to 100 percent in 2035. The rules sit in the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order 2023, SI 2023/1394, which was amended in October 2025 and came into effect in January 2026 to give manufacturers more flexibility.

The review sets out three lower versions of the 2030 target for cars. The first reaches 70 percent in 2030, with 36 percent in 2027, 46 percent in 2028 and 58 percent in 2029. The second reaches 60 percent in 2030, with 36 percent, 44 percent and 52 percent in the three years before it. The third reaches 50 percent in 2030, with 35 percent in 2027, 37 percent in 2028 and 42 percent in 2029. Every version still ends at 100 percent in 2035, so the later years climb faster the lower the 2030 figure is. Under the 50 percent version the targets then run 60, 70, 80 and 90 percent from 2031 to 2034.

Question 1 in the consultation asks whether any change is needed to the car trajectory at all, so keeping 80 percent is one of the possible outcomes. The review also covers vans, the flexibilities manufacturers can use, and a section on how to define the 2030 phase out of new petrol and diesel car sales, including the role of the Euro 7 emissions standard.

Why DfT Says 80 Percent Is Getting Hard to Hit

DfT says its own analysis and independent forecasts point to electric sales in 2030 that sit below the 80 percent headline target for cars. One forecast it cites, from BloombergNEF, projects that 67 percent of UK car sales will be plug-in by 2030, and that count includes plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars. DfT says almost one in four new cars bought in Britain is now zero emission, compared with fewer than one in fifty in 2019.

The review also puts numbers on what compliance costs. DfT estimates the average cost of trading ZEV allowances to meet the rules in 2024 was about £4,000 per traded allowance for cars. It estimates that the average extra discount on electric vehicles, compared with petrol and diesel discounts, was about £2,800 per vehicle in 2025. DfT calls these costs substantial, and says they raise questions about how much further manufacturers can push demand as targets rise. It also notes that the discounting has reduced costs for new electric drivers.

Plug-in hybrids are the other pressure point. DfT says they are becoming a bigger part of manufacturers’ compliance plans than expected. It says real-world carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrids in the UK are estimated at 3 to 7 times the official test figures, though it also says cars registered in 2025 were still roughly 40 percent cleaner than the average petrol or conventional hybrid car.

What It Means for Your Wallet

The consultation does not forecast showroom prices, so nobody can say yet what a lower target does to new car deals. What the document does show is the support that is already in place and the costs that sit around it. The £2 billion Electric Car Grant, funded to 2029/30, has supported more than 160,000 new electric car sales and applies to new cars priced at or under £37,000 that meet sustainability criteria. DfT says registrations rose by about 10 percent when it compared the 6 months before and after the grant began.

On running costs, DfT says drivers who do all their charging at home can save around £1,400 a year, paying as little as 2p per mile when charging off peak. That figure is based on January 2026 analysis using 2025 prices. The review also repeats that Electric Vehicle Excise Duty, a mileage charge for electric and plug-in hybrid cars announced at Budget 2025, starts in April 2028. DfT says an average electric car driving 8,000 miles a year will pay £240, or £20 a month, which it says is half the fuel duty rate paid by the average petrol or diesel driver.

For used car buyers, DfT says the used electric market is accelerating. It cites Autotrader data showing 1 in 4 used electric cars sold at under £15,000, and an average price of around £18,000 for a car aged 3 to 5 years. The review points out that most cars bought and sold in the UK are used, so the health of that market reaches well beyond new car buyers. DfT also says it consulted in April 2026 on battery health monitors for electric cars and expects to respond shortly. Our report on why used car prices are falling while used EV prices climb covers the same market.

On petrol and diesel, the government says its position is unchanged. The Secretary of State for Transport, Heidi Alexander, says in the foreword that the commitment to phase out new cars relying solely on internal combustion engines by 2030, and to make all new cars and vans zero emission by 2035, stands. The consultation is about the pace of the sales targets in between, and about how the 2030 phase out is defined.

The Euro 7 Link and the Plug-in Hybrid Gap

Euro 7 applies to new light vehicle models in the EU and Northern Ireland from 29 November 2026. The UK government consulted in April 2026 on moving Great Britain from the Euro 6d standard to Euro 7, using the same dates as the EU to limit divergence with Northern Ireland. That consultation closed on 25 May 2026 and DfT says responses are being considered. Great Britain remains at Euro 6d for now, which is why plug-in hybrids here are still tested on the older assumptions about how much they run on battery.

The gap is relevant to buyers as official carbon dioxide figures for plug-in hybrids are set to rise in 2027 under a further update to the test procedure, bringing them closer to real-world figures. The ZEV Mandate currently lets manufacturers apply for alternative plug-in hybrid values until 2030 so that the update does not make compliance harder.

What to Do Before 23 October

Responses can go in through the online form on the GOV.UK consultation page, by email to [email protected], or by post to the Department for Transport, ZEV Regulations, 3rd Floor, Great Minster House, 33 Horseferry Road, London SW1P 4DR. DfT asks respondents to say whether they are replying as an individual or for an organisation, and will only accept responses received before the closing time on 23 October 2026.

If you are choosing a new car or a lease in the coming months, the target changes are proposals, not law, so current deals and grants stand as they are. Check whether a car costs under £37,000 before counting on the Electric Car Grant, and look at the mileage charge starting in April 2028 if you plan to keep an electric or plug-in hybrid car for several years. DfT says responses can be published or disclosed under freedom of information law, so anyone who wants their answer kept confidential should say why when they reply.

Sources

Department for Transport, Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate Review, August 2026, GOV.UK: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a7ed73292ec93e1e03299cc/dft-zero-emissions-vehicle-zev-mandate-review-consultation.pdf
The Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order 2023, SI 2023/1394, legislation.gov.uk: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2023/1394/contents