Government Reviews Electric Car Sales Targets Months After Threatening £15,000 Fines

The government has opened a consultation that could water down the sales targets forcing car makers to sell more electric vehicles, just months after those same manufacturers were warned they face fines of up to £15,000 for every petrol or diesel car sold above their allowance. The review, launched on 14 August and open for responses until 23 October, follows sustained lobbying from legacy car makers who say the current trajectory is unworkable.

For drivers trying to decide whether their next car should be electric, the timing could hardly be more awkward. The Zero Emission Vehicle mandate currently requires 80% of a manufacturer’s car sales to be zero emission by 2030, rising to 100% by 2035, when new petrol and diesel car sales are set to end entirely. The consultation on the Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes Order, the legal instrument underpinning that mandate, sets out four alternative pathways alongside the existing one: trajectories that would reach 70%, 60% or 50% zero emission sales by 2030, or a version that keeps the 80% headline figure but gives manufacturers more flexibility in how they hit it.

Why the rules could change now

The Department for Transport has pointed to “challenging and complex global economic conditions, including supply chain disruption and tariff and trade uncertainty” as reasons for reopening a policy that was only finalised a few years ago. Car makers have argued privately and publicly that the fines built into the mandate, up to £15,000 per non-compliant vehicle, threaten jobs at plants that still build petrol and diesel models, and that the pace of the target has outrun consumer demand in parts of the market.

That argument sits awkwardly against the latest registration figures. More than one in four new cars sold in Britain are now electric, and EV sales in July were up 45% on the same month last year. The mandate appears to be working in headline terms, which raises the question of who exactly the review is for: manufacturers still building fleets weighted toward petrol and diesel, or the buyers who have already made the switch and now face a policy environment that could shift under them again.

What it means for anyone buying now

Every driver currently deciding between a petrol, hybrid or electric next car is being asked to make that decision against a backdrop the government itself admits could change within months. A softer target could ease the pressure that has pushed some manufacturers to discount electric models heavily to hit compliance figures, discounts that have benefited buyers directly. If the 80% target for 2030 is diluted, those manufacturer-funded discounts on EVs could shrink as the pressure to sell them eases.

There is a knock-on question for anyone who already owns an electric car, or is buying a nearly new one. Used EV values have been falling faster than petrol equivalents over the past year, with Auto Trader data showing the average retail price of a used electric car down more than 7% year on year even as demand for it climbs. A chunk of that fall reflects rising supply as manufacturers push more electric stock through dealer forecourts to hit the current targets. If the government relaxes those targets, the flow of heavily discounted new EVs could slow, which would remove one of the pressures dragging down used values, a rare piece of good news for existing owners if it plays out that way.

For anyone hoping to buy a new petrol or diesel car well into the 2030s on the assumption the ban will be delayed, the consultation is not a signal that the ban itself is under threat. All five pathways being consulted on still lead to 100% zero emission new car sales by 2035. What is actually open for debate is how steep the climb looks between now and then, and how much of that steepness manufacturers pass on to buyers through higher prices on petrol and diesel models, or lower prices on electric ones, to balance their compliance figures.

What the five options on the table actually mean

The consultation document lays out the choice in plain terms for anyone willing to read it. Sticking with the existing 80% by 2030 target keeps the fastest transition and the current £15,000 per vehicle fine structure in place, which car makers say punishes them hardest in a period of weak new car demand overall. The three softer options, at 70%, 60% and 50%, would each buy manufacturers more time before hitting the steepest compliance costs, but would also slow the growth in charging infrastructure investment that follows from a larger, more certain EV market. The fifth option keeps the 80% headline figure but widens the flexibilities manufacturers can use to hit it, such as banking credits from strong EV sales in one year against a weaker year, or trading compliance credits between manufacturers.

None of the five options touches the 2035 end date for new petrol and diesel sales, and the government has been explicit that the destination is not what is under review, only the route and the pace of getting there. That distinction is worth holding onto for anyone reading headlines that suggest the ban itself could be scrapped, as nothing in the published consultation supports that reading.

The manufacturers driving the review

The pressure for this review has come overwhelmingly from established car makers rather than the newer electric-only brands. Companies still selling large petrol and diesel ranges have the most to lose from missing the 2030 target and facing the £15,000 per vehicle penalty, while manufacturers such as Tesla, Polestar and BYD, who sell close to 100% electric already, have less reason to want the target softened. That split is worth knowing for anyone trying to work out whether a manufacturer’s current pricing on electric models reflects real long-term strategy or a short-term scramble to avoid fines under rules that might not survive the review.

How to respond and what to check before you buy

The consultation is open to the public, not just the motor industry, and anyone can submit a response through the government’s consultation portal before it closes on 23 October. Responses can address the headline sales trajectory, the compliance flexibilities manufacturers currently rely on, or the technical detail of how zero emission mileage credits are calculated.

Anyone shopping for a car in the next few months should ask a dealer directly whether the price or discount on offer is being driven by mandate compliance pressure, as that can mean a real bargain on an electric model right now that might not be repeated once the review concludes. For used EV buyers, checking the vehicle’s remaining battery warranty and requesting an independent battery health check remains worthwhile regardless of how the policy review lands, given that this is what protects resale value over the next few years rather than the wider political debate around targets.

Anyone who bought an electric car on the understanding that government policy was locked in until 2030 has grounds to feel frustrated that the rules are being reopened so soon. The practical answer is not to wait for certainty that could take until early 2027 to arrive, once the review concludes, but to treat every current EV discount, and every current used EV price drop, as a live opportunity rather than a permanent feature of the market.

Drivers who want a direct say in where the mandate lands can respond to the consultation itself, and dealers report that buyers are already asking more questions about how long current EV discounts will last. That extra scrutiny is a healthy habit regardless of how this particular review ends, given how often UK motoring policy has shifted direction over the past five years on fuel duty, congestion charging and clean air zones alike.

Sources:

• GOV.UK: Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate review consultation
• Autocar: ZEV mandate review imminent, government mulls softer sales targets
• Air Quality News: Government launches review of EV sales targets
• Auto Trader UK: Retail Price Index and press releases